The Singapore Forum

OK with the provocation by south korea against the north... (Read my post to that thread) I can clearly see someone is trying to provoke a war with China.
Yes Conspiracy leap here but here is the evidence.

India

India has formed two new army divisions - comprising more than 36,000 men - to defend the north-eastern state of Arunachal Pradesh.The remote north-eastern state adjoins China which claims large parts of it.
The 56th Division will be based in the nearby state of Nagaland to guard the eastern flank of Arunachal Pradesh from Chinese attack through Burma.

Eh? Chinese attack through Burma?!?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-11818840

Australia

An earlier report said Australia had agreed to boost US access to Defence Force facilities within months, amid growing concerns about China's military expansion.

WTF What military expansion? Why Australia? It is so far way? Unless you are planning to build the containment wall for them to expand into.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/hilla ... 17i9d.html

Japan

Tokyo is considering placing troops on a remote Japanese island in the East China Sea to monitor China's expanded naval activities that have worried its neighbours, a newspaper reported Tuesday....
Japanese defence officials are considering placing about 200 troops on Yonaguni, Japan's westernmost island, roughly 100 kilometres (60 miles) east of Taiwan

60 miles east of Taiwan? Thats on the other side of Taiwan to china? Why have monitoring post on the wrong side of Taiwan? Google Map it! WTF are you going to monitor there? fishing boats? Unless you expect Taiwan to fall under the influence of china perhaps????

Nice piece on military build up
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lMNM42zpJUs

The US is screwed and cannot defeat china militarily so it looks to me they are building containment lines that does not include Taiwan or ASEAN nations! Just like a hot air balloon they just need to generate some heat for them to expand into it (like in WWII when the US cut oil supplies to Japan forcing japan to act out). Why is the US doing this? I don't have the answer but my guess is that China is the biggest threat and war is the only way the US can save itself.

Conversely the Chinese have no real power projection beyond their own borders - the US is however the main culprit in protecting their region hegemony... given both the history of the US post 1940 as well previous cases where rising powers came up against established powers, it would seem that conflict with China is inevitable.

I previously thought and perhaps hoped that is was not inevitable however the dynamic is changing. It wont likely start by those crackpots in North Korea - the Chinese wont instigate a conflict unless given no choice - Korean war style. The Chinese will push the US at key times however they are very strategically minded and understand the costs of a conflict. I dont know how long the US can maintain their regional role and containment through South Korea, Japan, Singapore, India, Australia is more likely until the US economy well and truly goes down the drain and a good fashion war could give the boost needed.

BTW I understand that the Chinese are slowly selling off dollar investments and buying lots of gold... could be interesting to looking at buying some chinese currency to keep under the pilow

Chinese currency is usually akin to used toilet paper. Dirty and something I wouldn't want to keep near where I woo the chicks the best.

However, it is better than Indonesian currency: that's more akin to third-hand used toilet paper. Ew!

None of the above will happen. This Korea thing is just another flare-up in a long line of crap like this. It will blow over.

The US couldn't defeat China militarily, nor could China defeat the US militarily in the conventional, WWII sense - ie occupy the other's country. The US has a strong set of allies bases and capabilities to deter and defeat Chinese aggression, should it happen.
I don't think it will. With their huge population and solid economic growth, why would they mess up a good thing and end up getting all their shit blown up?

The WWII dynamic has altered dramatically and it is hard to foresee too many Normandy type invasions into the future, especially for superpowers. This however doesn’t rule out conflict all together; North and South East Asia are increasing investments in weapons systems and the China question does present a new power sharing paradigm to all security planners. It is difficult to foresee the impetuous behind a rush into open conflict given the interconnectedness of our world today but realities alter, allegiances shift and these security planners need to prepare for all number of contingencies 10 to 20 years into the future. In the meantime everyone will just keep trying to exist in a world economy swamped in debt and free flowing capital until that equation is altered

China has plenty of power projection beyond its own borders, it is just different (and clearly better hidden) than the US.
Why on earth would the two superpowers ever go up against each other via Korean proxy after what happened last time?

Hmmmm number 1 son has just completed his final exams (today to be exact) and I have a deep fear that his "party days" in the last few months will be apparent when his results come out and impact his entrance into university. I was just sitting here plotting on how to throw him into the military for a few years…perhaps I need to rethink that!

Well, it would depend which military, wouldn't it? You've not been plotting to get him into the ROK Marines, are you?

Snaffled wrote:Why on earth would the two superpowers ever go up against each other via Korean proxy after what happened last time?

Very good question! But finally I have a theory...
The US owns gazillions to china. If China is sucked into a war of (made to appear) aggression. The US can easily say "oops you are bad guys now so we don't have to pay you zilch. Debt wiped!".

The US has done this before. The US borrowed heavily from the French crown to fund the War of Independence. When the French crown was overthrown and beheaded and the republic was established, the US said "oh well we don't owe you anything anymore since our debt was with the crown, and you killed them, so we owe the republic nothing..."

Mind you I think the US has no intention of actually participating in the early stages of this war, cause that would be very costly and they can't afford it, they just need to be the catalyst to start it. Once the debt has been wiped then they can again borrow money to reequip and throw the chinese back and then sock them with the bill. AKA WWII and japan. Debt wiped! Profit made! US SuperPower preserved.

Mr Oz. I have to say, the more I think about this theory of yours, I just can't help but think that this scenario would be a gift to the US handed on a silver platter. I do think the US is capable of it, and would have so much to gain from it.

Without trust and the basic belief of honesty in people/nations we don’t have much left to work with.

Lili Von Shtupp wrote:Mr Oz. I have to say, the more I think about this theory of yours, I just can't help but think that this scenario would be a gift to the US handed on a silver platter. I do think the US is capable of it, and would have so much to gain from it.

I reckon if Cheney was still VP I'd be buying Haliburton shares asap.

baloo wrote:I reckon if Cheney was still VP I'd be buying Haliburton shares asap.

Why not just own a few shares in the Federal reserve? You can print your own money and lend it to the US Government at interest. Where the hell else is the US government going to get the money to throw the chinese back and when its over a billion chinese will be paying you back $1 a day for the next 3 generations. Wow what an investment....

By the playbook ...

China tells US to turn that aircraft carrier around NOW!
http://www.businessinsider.com/china-us ... z16PAbXWRS