Is the EU a dream gone bad?

[Joseph27]

As a concept in post 1940s Europe, the EU was a grand vision looking into the future. In 2010, its more a troublesome dream descending somewhat into a nightmare - Greece is broke, Ireland is broke, Portugal and Spain are in a bad shape on track to join the these other 2 on the streets with hat in hand waiting on the generosity of others. All 4 countries are unlikely to be able to grow their tax bases enough to service their debt let alone pay them down so where does it leave the entire project? And how about the Euro? At what stage does this short lived Empire collapse?

[T2K]

That's a good question. It seems an artificial construction based on geography and little else. I mean...what do Greece and Ireland really have in common, or Portugal and Finland? I think it's clear that there won't be any Western European wars any more (a major goal). The rest of it...?

[Addadude]

Tell me about it. I'm now a citizen of the Republic of IMF.

[Joseph27]

Earlier in the year there was a court challenge in Germany against the bailout of the Greek economy with the claim it was unconstitutional... There is an increasing degree of economic nationalism that will be exacerbated by the excesses of those fledgling member states. Ireland screwed up in guaranteeing bank deposits and has bankrupted their economy in the process, the Greeks, Spain and Portugal will also put massive strain on the euro and indeed the EU – at what stage do the big 2 move from simply reminiscing about the Deutschmark and Franc into a discernable disengagement process?

[Morrolan]

the customs union that the EU started out with was a good concept, however execution was a failure already in the 1970s and 80s (subsidy madness, over-production of agricultural produce that was subsequently destroyed rather than exported to countries with shortages so as not to undermine the world prices, a few economically strong countries paying for many weak others). from there it went from bad to worse and the EURO, political union and addition of former east bloc countries have caused an economically and politically inviable behemoth that was bound to fail from the beginning.

hell, that was the view of the majority of Dutch citizens back in the 1990s and it only took 20 years to become fact.

[cromasaig]

Eat what stage do the big 2 move from simply reminiscing about the Deutschmark and Franc into a discernable disengagement process?

Not any time soon. Germany is an export-based economy - unlike the UK, for example, it still makes stuff that people want to buy. There's lots of resentment, but it can't exit the Eurozone without its markets imploding.

[baloo]

Time to dust off my "FX Trading for Dummies" book.

[Joseph27]

Eat what stage do the big 2 move from simply reminiscing about the Deutschmark and Franc into a discernable disengagement process?

Not any time soon. Germany is an export-based economy - unlike the UK, for example, it still makes stuff that people want to buy. There's lots of resentment, but it can't exit the Eurozone without its markets imploding.

Stuck between a rock and a bunch of crappy neighbors

[cromasaig]

Except that it's the biggest house in the neighbourhood, by far. So the EU is an expensive business for Germany, but in return it basically runs Europe. That's arguably quite good value for money.

[Lichtgestalt]

Except that it's the biggest house in the neighbourhood, by far. So the EU is an expensive business for Germany, but in return it basically runs Europe. That's arguably quite good value for money.

Historically if Kohl had asked the population for a referendum on the Euro he would never have gotten the approval and with the bailout of Greece, Ireland, etc. that surely hasn't gotten better. If it's beneficial for Germany.... ask 2 economists and you will get 3 different opinions. From my point of view it has gone too far and the EU is not willing to protect the Euro (by monitoring the countries) and has an exit strategy for countries who simply don't meet (or never met) the requirements to be part of it.

[Addadude]

By complete coincidence, I just got my new passport today...

[Joseph27]

Brussels is a shambles… you know what they say about the average common market official… he has the organizing ability of the Italians, the flexibility of the Germans and the modesty of the French…. And that’s topped up by the imagination of the Belgians, the generosity of the Dutch, and the intelligence of the Irish… Minister Jim Haggert.. Yes Minister...

[Mr Oz]

Ah Europe has been sacrificed to save the US. Isn't it wonderful.

Do you want to hear the theory?
ok here goes.
US is printing money like a drunken zimbabwe dictator to save itself from meltdown. So why doesn't the expansion of the money supply cause a currency collapse like zim? You have to make everyone else just as bad. Call in their loans. Print more money lend it to them "to save them", thereby inflating their money supply, shoring up own and you get them in debt to you for the next 30 years....

[baloo]

Hey Oz, what do you do when two conspiracy theories contradict each other ? Pick the juciest one and assume the other was a CIA plant, or run with both regardless ?

[Mr Oz]

Hey Oz, what do you do when two conspiracy theories contradict each other ? Pick the juciest one and assume the other was a CIA plant, or run with both regardless ?

Hmmm... that's a tough one. Probably pick the one with the most unrelated evidence and assume the other was my imagination ...