China's development of a 5th Generation fighter

[Joseph27]

This is interesting - the Chinese are already testing their 5th generation aircraft.... meanwhile Australian politicians remain on their knees busily servicing US defence contractors and swallowing whatever comes our way.

Given the flight of Russia's new T50 Sukhoi last January and the confirmation of more advanced Chinese fighters, the... Australian govt should either insist on getting the F22 Raptor or look at shopping elsewhere. The Chinese are developing their military potential ahead of schedule and if they can produce even the equivalent of the F35 they will negate US regional hegemony. The newer F22 will remain by far the most advanced plane of its type but F-35 seems like little more than a support for its big brother.

Meanwhile Aussie policians will remain steadfast in favour of the F-35 despite budget concerns and emerging competing platforms. The situation was okay when Australia had air dominance with the FA-18 hornets 20 years ago but the dynamic has changed too much. It will be interesting to see how Singapore directs its airforce over the next 5 years.

[Fat Bob]

You been watching "Tomorrow When the War Began"?

[Joseph27]

Nah just reading dodgy websites during my dinner

[Fat Bob]

I just made myself pizza for dinner: much nicer and a lot more healthy than anything any of these delivery places could do.

Unfortunately it probably wouldn't travel well.

Anyhow, back to 5th Gen fighters: as much as you want to look at China expansionist theories and worry about an invasion of Australia, I think you're way down the list. First there's Taiwan and Japan to take care of, then those border areas with the Russians, Mongolians and Indians, then the conquering of South East Asia. THEN China may want to jump over Indonesia to get to Australia. So plenty of warning and I think once they attack a sovereign nation, other, large nations will jump on board.

[canuck]

I just made myself pizza for dinner: much nicer and a lot more healthy than anything any of these delivery places could do.

Unfortunately it probably wouldn't travel well.

so you deliver?

Have you tried the pizza joint in Gim Moh, no delivery but darn good pizza

[Joseph27]

No FB nothing so grand - China is along way from projecting genuine power and Australia is too troublesome to be entertained... this isnt the 1940's... the threat with China is much more specific to Nth Asia and its rise vis'e'vis US regional hegemony... the basic classical realist story of international politics, the emerging power meeting the reigning power... its nice to think humanity has evolved but we are too bloody stupid for that to be entertained.

[Burbage]

Why would China want to invade Australia? Australia practically gives them all their resources anyway.

[Joseph27]

Oh and because of your post FB - I just watched Tomorrow when the war began and it sucked... an Aussie version of Red Dawn. At least that film had a talented pool of actors and it was set in the midst of the cold war with an immediate invasion of South Americans backed by Soviets - silly yes and indicative of US cold war paranoia but still more feasible than the Chinese attacking a group of aussie country kids up in the sticks...

[Fat Bob]

Well, it was written in 1993, so making a movie 17 years later probably misses out on all the political stuff happening at the time.

[Addadude]

Red Dawn featured my favourite 'bad guy' actor of all the time - the great William Smith. (Who in real life is a fluent Russian speaker.)

BTW Canuck, have you tried the pizzas at O'Gambinos in Raffles City? Superb!

[Fat Bob]

Didn't know there was a pizza place in Ghim Moh. My current fave pizza making place is Picotin, especially when they put black pudding and pepperoni on it.

[T2K]

I also watched "Tomorrow When the War Began". Well, yeah, it sucked compared to "Red Dawn" WOLVERINES! oops sorry, reflex there.

The "coalition" was obviously Asian, but I noticed that when the enemy soldiers were talking to each other in their language it was always indistinct so you couldn't pin it on one nationality. The larger plot events of how this war happened were very spotty, the smaller scale action was ok at best.

WOLVERINES! again, sorry, will try to control that.

[Fat Bob]

BAH! HUMBUG! Wolverines, smulverines.

You want a fighting force on your home soil? Go no further than Dad's Army, thank you very much!

[Morrolan]

5th generation? let's not get carried away. to me the front of this plane looks remarkably like a Hawker Hunter...


or even an Avro Vulcan with some sharp angles...

[Joseph27]

Funnily i turned on Starhub movies this morning and Red Dawn was actually on. Havent seen it in like 20 years but its still 1000x better than that crap 'tomorrow when the war began'... At least Red Dawn explains the theory - albeit with dialogue reflective of US paranoia at the USSR. Still how could the Aussies compete against Patrick Swayze and Charlie Sheen.

As for the 5th gen plane - those pics are rubbish, that plane looks like something out of a 1970's military book. A 5th gen fighter may not be realistically flying for 5 years with at least another 5 before any sort of numbers could be produced. Even still it highlights the advances achieved since 1996 - the Chinese war games on show at that time reflected a total lack of sophistication and technological advancement not to mentioned zero power projection - decades behind anything the US was doing. Now 14 years later, whilst still a long way behind, China is demonstrating a much more coherent force. Give them to 2020 and it will be interesting to see their relationship with the US

[Fat Bob]

Morro: I thought Vulcan as well, however, the chinese 5th gen fighter has twin-tail, not a single as in your pic.

However, they don't seem to have followed the convention ways of putting the fins on in this image:

[T2K]

WOLVER...(ahem, sorry)

Yes, Red Dawn was made when there actually was an enemy superpower. It's funny now how people completely forget the Cold War and the Soviets. But Red Dawn did have at least some semblance of a backstory of how the invasion happened, what the rest of the US and world was doing, etc. Tmrw When the War Began has nothing, zero. An enemy army from countries unknown that have invasion fleets in the harbor, jet fighters and bombers, lots and lots of armored vehicles, a big occupation force in a little nowhere town, etc.

They should have made it a space invasion movie, that would have been more believable!

[Tas]

When the War Began is based on a teens series that's been around for a bit - thus not sure it was really meant for adult audience or adapted well? Didn't bother to watch it though, all I could see in the ads was the Neighbours chick plus one of the guys next door who was a grip on the set said she was a PIA princess during production which put me off more.

[Snaffled]

It is an officially sanctioned "leak" of photos of a stealth fighter days before the US make a trip to China to hold military discussions. I'd say it is a mock-up, not a proto-type.

[Morrolan]

Morro: I thought Vulcan as well, however, the chinese 5th gen fighter has twin-tail, not a single as in your pic.

is why i said: 'the front'...

[Joseph27]

The inlets are considerably different in the 2 pics (the former is early 70's technology), this Chinese mock up or whatever it turns out to be, is quite similar in design to the F22 in design though the F22 has quite different inlets. The following is from a defence contractor - tainted testomony for sure but worth a look over. The major issue is that defence procurement is subject to so many factors and you generally plan for strategic situations 10 to 15 years in the future.

Factors to consider for Australian defence planners are a more militant China dominating regional shipping lanes with aircraft carriers, Indian and China possesing significant numbers of T-50's / J20's and most importantly nations such as Malaysia and Indonesia possessing equal or better aircraft. Australia is hedging its regional defence policy on the JSF which has faced significant production and technical delays - at best the F-35 remains 2nd tier to the Raptor. F22's would open up lines of attack to be followed by squadrons of F-35's and drones. This is where Australian and Japanese politicians have got to spend their energies lobbying the US govt to upgrade the platform to the F-22.

Technical Observations on the Prototype Design

1. The J-XX/J-20 is a large fighter, similar in size to an F-111. This first-of-type aircraft presents with a large dihedral canard-delta wing configuration; with a pair of outward/rearward canted all moving combined vertical/horizontal tails; and, similarly large, outward canted ventral fins/strakes which, if all moving like the tails and retained on any production version, will make for some quite advanced capability options in the areas of controllability and manoeuvrability. There is little doubt this configuration is intended to provide good sustained supersonic cruise performance with a suitable engine type, and good manoeuvre performance in transonic and supersonic regimes.

2. The stealth shaping is without doubt considerably better than that seen in the Russian T-50 PAK-FA prototypes and, even more so, than that seen in the intended production configuration of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.

3. The J-XX/J-20 design appears to be largely built around the stealth shaping design rules employed in the F-22A Raptor:

4. The chined J-XX/J-20 nose section and canopy are close in appearance to the F-22, yielding similar signature performance in a mature design.

5. The J-XX/J-20 trapezoidal edge aligned engine inlets are closest to the F-22, though appear to be larger and employ an F-35 style DSI (Diverterless Supersonic Inlet) design, obviously intended to improve on F-22 inlet edge signature.

6. The J-XX/J-20 wing fuselage join, critical for beam and all aspect stealth, is in shaping and angle very similar to the F-22, and clearly superior to both the Russian T-50 PAK-FA prototypes and the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.

7. The J-XX/J-20 flat lower fuselage is optimal for all aspect wideband stealth, and emulates the F-22 design closely.

8. Planform alignment of the J-XX/J-20 is impossible to fully assess until in-flight imagery becomes available.

9. The J-XX/J-20 nose and main undercarriage doors employ X-band optimised edge serration technology, based on F-117A and F-22 design rules.

10. The aft fuselage, tailbooms, fins/strakes and axi-symmetric nozzles are not compatible with high stealth performance, but may only be stop-gap measures to expedite flight testing of a prototype.

11. The airframe configuration and aft fuselage shape would be compatible with an F-22A style 2D TVC nozzle design, or a non-TVC rectangular nozzle designed for controlled infrared emission patterns and radio-frequency stealth.

12. The airframe configuration is compatible with ventral and side opening internal weapon bays, and large enough to match or exceed, by some degree, the internal weapons payload of the F-22A Raptor.

13. Internal fuel fraction is also likely to be high, given the fuselage configuration and large internal volume of the big delta wing. This indicates an intent to provide a sustained supersonic cruise capability, in the manner of the proposed FB-22.

14. The PLA have not disclosed the engine type. There are claims that the Russians supplied supercruise capable 117S series engines, though, subject to the overall efficiency of the aircraft’s aerodynamics, these would likely not be sufficient to extract the full performance potential of this advanced airframe.

15. The intended sensor suite remains unknown. China has yet to demonstrate an AESA radar, or an advanced indigenous Emitter Locating System (ELS). However, these could become available by the time this airframe enters production. Suitable Russian hardware is currently in late development and/or test.

......

The size of the J-XX/J-20 airframe, and the self evident focus on supersonic persistence, suggests, at a minimum, an intention to provide a long range interceptor for anti-access operations in the Second Island Chain geography. It is likely any production design J-XX/J-20 will incorporate an aerial refuelling probe to further extend its large operating radius.

A stealthy, supercruising, long range interceptor would provide the PLA-AF with the capability to penetrate an opposing IADS to destroy assets like E-3 AWACS, RC-135V/W Rivet Joint, other ISR systems, and importantly, Air Force and Navy tankers. This would significantly complicate if not close down air operations from Andersen AFB and fixed basing in the Ryukyu chain, Japanese main islands, and Korean peninsula, during the opening phase of any contingency.

Naval task forces structured around CVBGs and operating within the 1,000 NMI plus radius of the J-XX/J-20 would be at significant risk of rapidly losing their E-2C/D AEW&C and EA-18G Growler Electronic Attack coverage during the opening phase of any contingency.

Any notion that an F-35 Joint Strike Fighter or F/A-18E/F Super Hornet will be capable of competing against this Chengdu design in air combat, let alone penetrate airspace defended by this fighter, would be simply absurd. The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter and F/A-18E/F Super Hornet are both aerodynamically and kinematically quite inferior to the as presented J-XX/J-20 design, and even the shape based VLO capability in the J-XX/J-20, as presented, will effectively neutralise any sensor advantage either type might possess against earlier Russian and Chinese fighter designs.